What’s Really Happening in Today’s Housing Market

After several years of soaring home prices, many hopeful buyers are wondering: will the housing market finally crash? Social media is full of bold predictions, but the actual data tells a much more grounded story.

According to Tina Ballinger, a local mortgage expert at applywithtina.com, "While the market is definitely shifting, we’re not seeing the signs of a crash. What we’re seeing instead is a slow return to a more balanced pace."

Why a Crash Isn’t Likely

Let’s start with the basics: for a market crash to occur, there usually needs to be a major imbalance—like too much supply and not enough demand. But right now, the U.S. housing market is facing the opposite problem.

Inventory is still historically low. New listings remain tight because many homeowners are staying put, often locked into ultra-low mortgage rates from recent years. Meanwhile, demand from millennials and Gen Z buyers remains strong. This supply-demand mismatch helps keep prices from falling sharply.

As Tina Ballinger explains on applywithtina.com, "Even though price growth is slowing, the fundamental lack of inventory is keeping a floor under home values."

What About Local Price Drops?

While a nationwide crash is unlikely, not every market is immune from price adjustments. Some metro areas that saw extreme price growth in 2020-2022 are now seeing slight declines or plateaus. But this is more of a normalization than a crash.

"We are seeing some overpriced areas recalibrate," says Tina Ballinger, "but that doesn’t mean the market is collapsing. Buyers still need to act strategically, especially in competitive neighborhoods."

Should You Wait to Buy?

One of the biggest mistakes buyers make is trying to time the market perfectly. Waiting for a dramatic price drop can backfire—especially if interest rates rise or competition increases again.

According to Tina Ballinger, "The better approach is to focus on your own budget and long-term goals. If you find a home you love and can afford, that’s the right time to buy."

Buyers should also consider that rents continue to rise in many areas. Owning a home offers stability and the potential to build equity, even in a market with modest price growth.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Many experts predict that the market will remain steady heading into 2026. Prices may rise more slowly, and mortgage rates will continue to play a big role in affordability. But unless inventory suddenly surges or the economy takes a major hit, a crash like 2008 is highly unlikely.

"Real estate is always local," says Tina Ballinger, "so work with a knowledgeable professional who understands your area. That’s the best way to make a smart move in today’s market."

Sources: Realtor.com, FreddieMac.com, NAR.realtor, CNBC.com